Fall Elections Scenarios from AI for Montreal Real Estate.

2027–2030 scenario

Potential Montreal real-estate impact by government

My qualitative assessment of market sensitivity—not a forecast of actual price changes.

The numbers above are AI assessment of market sensitivity, not predicted percentage changes in prices.

-PLQ wins — probably the most business-friendly scenario.

The Quebec Liberals are currently emphasizing increasing housing supply, accelerating construction and making new homes more affordable. One specific proposal is increasing eligibility for the Quebec sales-tax rebate on new construction. The party has also said it wants to ultimately facilitate 100,000 housing starts per year.

For Montreal real estate:

Short term: PositiveLuxury: / PositiveNew construction: Strongly positiveInvestor confidence: PositivePolitical uncertainty: Low

I would expect a PLQ government to be the least disruptive scenario for the higher-end Montreal market.

Why?

Because the big issue isn't simply affordability. It's confidence.

A $3M buyer needs to feel comfortable that Montreal will remain a desirable place to hold capital for the next 10–20 years.

A Liberal government would probably provide the least political shock to that equation.

-CAQ wins — continuity, but with questions.

This is the status quo scenario.

The CAQ government has already been pursuing measures intended to increase housing supply and simplify the regulatory environment. Bill 20, introduced in February 2026, is explicitly aimed at improving access to housing and simplifying processes.

The advantage of a CAQ victory would therefore be:

"We know what we're getting."

That matters enormously to investors.

But there is a problem.

The CAQ has been in power for eight years, and housing affordability has become one of its major political vulnerabilities. The Liberals are already arguing that housing affordability has deteriorated under the CAQ.

So I would expect:

Short term: StableLuxury: / StableNew construction: Investor confidence: /Political uncertainty: Low

I don't see a CAQ victory creating a major shock to Montreal real estate.

Rather, it would be more of the existing trajectory.

-PQ wins — the most interesting scenario

This is the one I would watch most carefully.

And there's an important distinction:

A PQ government does NOT automatically mean a real-estate crash.

In fact, on housing policy alone, there are some potentially positive elements.

The PQ has proposed reducing construction costs through regulatory reform, including harmonizing building codes and reducing the number of steps involved in development.

It has also made increasing access to ownership a priority.

So purely from a housing-policy perspective, a PQ government could actually be constructive.

The problem is the referendum.

That's the elephant in the room.

And now we know the timing:

2027–2028: PQ government, but no referendum yet.

2029+: referendum becomes a real possibility.

That creates an unusual market.

Here's how AI thinks it could play out

2027

PQ wins.

Initially, I would expect a psychological pause rather than a price collapse.

Buyers of $2M+ properties might say:

"Let's see what happens."

Some sellers might say:

"Maybe we should sell before things get complicated."

That creates more negotiation and potentially longer marketing periods.

What do you think ?

Are these valid points?

Are you considering Selling or Buying in Fall 2026 ,2027 ?

McGuigan Pepin wants to hear from you.