Interest Rate Forecasts and the Quebec Fall Election relating to Real Estate in Montreal.

Quebec Real Estate in 2027: Interest Rates, the

Election and What Buyers & Sellers Should

Watch

As we look toward 2027, two questions are increasingly being discussed by homeowners, buyers and investors across Quebec:

Where will interest rates go? And what will the October 2026 Quebec election mean for real estate?

There are no easy predictions, but both factors could have an important influence on the real estate market—and perhaps more importantly, on the confidence of buyers and sellers.

Interest Rates: Stability Could Be the Biggest Story

The Bank of Canada currently has its overnight policy rate at 2.25%, following its September 2, 2026 decision to leave rates unchanged.

The interesting question is what happens next.

While inflation remains a concern and there is still a possibility that rates could rise, economists surveyed by Reuters are generally expecting the Bank of Canada to remain cautious, with rates potentially staying around current levels through much of 2027 before any gradual increases.

For real estate, this could be good news.

After the dramatic increase in borrowing costs experienced earlier in the decade, a period of relative stability would allow buyers and sellers to plan with greater confidence.

Stable rates can be almost as important as lower rates.

When people know approximately what their mortgage costs will be, they are more comfortable making one of the largest financial decisions of their lives.

What could this mean for Quebec real estate?

If rates remain relatively stable:

Buyers may gradually return to the market with greater confidence.

Sellers who have been waiting for better conditions may decide it is time to move.

Financing becomes easier to plan for.

Demand could strengthen, particularly for desirable properties.

Well-priced homes should continue to attract serious buyers.

However, if inflation remains stubborn and rates have to move higher, affordability could once again become a limiting factor.

The important point is that we should not build a real estate strategy around one predicted interest-rate number. The market will respond to the direction of rates, mortgage qualification, employment, consumer confidence and the supply of properties.

Then There Is the Quebec Election

Quebecers will go to the polls on October 5, 2026, making the provincial election another important variable heading into 2027.

Elections often create a period of uncertainty.

Buyers may decide to wait until they know which government will be in place. Sellers may also postpone decisions while they assess potential changes to taxation, housing policies, immigration, government spending and the overall economic direction of the province.

But elections do not automatically mean that real estate prices will fall.

In fact, the effect may be more psychological than fundamental in the short term.

The real question is: what policies follow the election?

Housing affordability is already a major issue for Quebec governments. The province's current housing strategy focuses on increasing housing supply, improving affordability and creating greater balance in the residential market.

Depending on the government elected, 2027 could bring changes affecting:

Housing supply — policies encouraging new construction could gradually increase inventory.

Immigration — changes in immigration policy could influence population growth and housing demand.

Taxation — changes affecting homeowners, investors or businesses could influence purchasing decisions.

Rental housing — policies concerning tenants, landlords and new rental construction could affect investment decisions.

Economic confidence — perhaps the most important factor of all. Consumers and investors tend to make larger financial commitments when they feel confident about the future.

Could 2027 Be a "Wait and See" Market?

Possibly—but that doesn't necessarily mean a quiet market.

The period immediately surrounding the election could produce some hesitation. Once the political picture becomes clearer, however, pent-up demand could return.

The same could happen with interest rates.

If buyers spend 2026 waiting for rates to fall substantially and rates instead remain relatively stable, some may eventually conclude that waiting for the perfect rate means waiting too long.

Real estate markets rarely provide perfect timing.

There will always be another election, another interest-rate announcement, another economic report or another reason to wait.

Our View: Strategy Will Matter More Than Predictions

For homeowners considering selling in 2027, the lesson is not necessarily to wait for interest rates to reach a particular level or for the political environment to become perfectly predictable. Instead, strategy will matter.

The right price, preparation, presentation, timing and marketing plan will continue to make a significant difference.

For buyers, the same principle applies. Rather than trying to predict the exact bottom or the exact direction of interest rates, it may be more useful to determine:

What property do I want? What can I comfortably afford? And does the opportunity make sense for my long-term plans?

The Bottom Line

2027 could be an interesting year for Quebec real estate.

Interest rates may provide greater stability, while the October 2026 election could create a period of uncertainty followed by renewed confidence.

If borrowing costs remain relatively predictable and economic confidence improves, we could see more buyers and sellers re-enter the market.

And if that happens, the market may become less about waiting—and more about acting when the right opportunity presents itself.

At McGuigan Pepin, we believe successful real estate decisions are rarely based on trying to predict the future perfectly.

They are based on understanding the market, anticipating change and having the right strategy when the opportunity arrives.

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